By Reza Hoseani
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action died but trying to keep it alive, why?
The Extraordinary Commission for the Comprehensive Joint Action Plan was held in Vienna, Austria on Sunday, July 28, 2019. The meeting was held at the request of the United Kingdom, France, Germany and the Iranian regime at the level of Deputy Foreign Ministers and Managers and there were representatives of China and Russia.
The JCPOA meeting, which was termed as an emergency and extraordinary meeting, ended with a repeat of the usual participants’ usual words that had been heard before, so the question arises.
Why was this meeting so special?
Although the words of both sides are the same as before, the situation is explosive. The situation has become even more complex with the regime’s shipwreck, and the new government in England has given it more urgency.
On the other hand, Iran’s religious regime threatens to take a third step in defiance of its obligations under the JCPOA, if the mullahs’ regime also takes a third step and goes for a 20% enrichment, which is a qualitative step. It is a breach of the JCPOA contract.
And it seems that Europe wanted to say the same thing to the Iran regime at this extraordinary summit.
In fact, the ultimate goal of the summit was to preserve the same contract from which only one shell remained and to prevent its complete destruction.
What is the reason for the efforts of the two sides to maintain this agreement?
Why don’t they get the desired result?
The reason is clear, the issue of the Iran regime will be transferred to the Security Council without the JCPOA and face the trigger mechanism and … what is deadly for the regime (whether with breached of the JCPOA or exited of it)!
For this reason, Hassan Rouhani has always cited the JCPOA as one of his own benefits, which has removed the war from the regime and bought it for the security regime.
For Europe as well, this agreement is a security issue.
Because if the regime goes out of the way, it means building a nuclear bomb and the result they get is that: Perhaps the Iran regime has or is approaching a nuclear bomb and this is very worrying for Europe.
One of the regime’s political experts, Bigdley, points to this fact (on the “Feraro” website – July 28): “The Europeans are trying to keep Iran in the JCPOA. The main reason is that if Iran withdraws from the JCPOA, it will fall out of IAEA control, and it may be alleged that Iran will do something secret and take actions that are out of the Agency’s eyes”.
On the other hand, moving the Iranian regime’s case to the Security Council, which means war, is by no means favorable to Europe, as well as Russia and China. Regardless of the economic benefits, war, in the Persian Gulf region where Europe’s economic life is passing, is the last thing Europe might want.
At a recent meeting, a time was set for a meeting attended by the foreign ministers of the commission members.
Within the Iranian regime, however, this is referred to as a process of erosion; which means buying time.
But the mullahs’ regime, because of the sheer impasse it is facing, it wants to do the same thing for year of 2020, which is the year of the US election.
At that point there might be an opening for it to find a way to breathe.
The regime’s way out of crisis traffic!?
The fact is that the regime is facing three crises, all of which are explosive, and there is no solution for either:
First, the explosive state of the society and the presence of the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran #MEK/ #PMOI and the organized resistance that overthrow this explosive situation.
Second is the regime’s explosive situation in international and regional relations.
Third, the internal crisis of the regime, which actually reflects the two crises, that is, the work of the regime’s gangs has been pushed to narrow places so that they accuse each other of spying on strangers, Zarif threatens to resign and Khamenei inevitably intervenes.
Another crisis on top of crises
But perhaps beyond these crises one can point to another and that crisis is not a solution for the regime.
The regime has no solution to any of these crises, even tactically and sectionally, and these crises are constantly escalating.
This is also an interesting and paradoxical irony that the regime is trying to buy time while the time element is at the expense of the regime, and with each passing day, the regime gets weaker and worn out and gets closer to its end.
Finally it must be said There is only one path in front of the regime that is overthrown by the Iranian people and resistance and the establishment of a democratic government.
And that will happen soon.
Reza Hoseani is a writer, analyst, expert on Iranian affairs, a human rights activist and a defender of the rights of women, children and political prisoners