Analysis by PMOI/MEK
Iran, December 19, 2020— To predict the future of the economics of a society, the expression of real statistics of the current situation with the right statistics in a macroeconomy is possible. The Iranian regime has violated wants to cover up the reality of its bankrupt economy by publishing fake statistics. The latest example of these falsehoods comes from Abdolnasser Hemmati, the head of the regime’s central bank. Hemmati lined up some figures to portray a positive picture of the regime’s economic situation, but in the factional feuding among ruling gangs, who are well acquainted with each other’s corruption, his true colors were revealed.
The economy is trapped in contradictory statistics
One of the claims made by Hemmati is that the regime has succeeded in bringing the inflation rate down to 22 percent. Currently fluctuating between 40 and 50 percent, the inflation rate has even risen above this figure in consumer goods. Meanwhile, according to an April 7 report by Tasnim News Agency, an outlet linked to the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), Hemmati announced this March that the inflation was more than 41 percent which made it evident that the 22-percent inflation rate was an unreachable goal.
Interestingly, since December 2018,Hassan Rouhani had banned Central Bank from publishing economic statistics, especially the inflation rate, and on this basis, the bank had not published inflation statistics for a long time. But under the pressure of the judiciary, whose head Ebrahim Raisi is a staunch rival of Rouhani, Hemmati was forced to announce the inflation rate of 2019.
“Of course, the censorship of important economic statistics, which occurs from time to time, is a repetition of history in different governments. It is the nature of governments to publish whatever statistics they wish and to censor statistics that judge their performance (negatively),” the Tasnim report states.
The 22-percent inflation dream
Hemmati once again underlined his imaginary inflation rate in recent interview. A December 9 report wired by the state-run Tejarat website reads in part:
“Hemmati should answer to the people, when all the financial instruments, including the gold and currency market, liquidity, etc., are under the management of the Central Bank, how can he defend not achieving the targeted inflation rate? If Hemmati announced 22 percent inflation and did not reach it, the credibility of the Central Bank has undoubtedly been damaged and the targeted inflation rate has had a reverse effect.”
The missing $1 billion
Another contradiction regards $1 billion dollars reportedly given by the Central Bank for customs clearance. Interestingly a spokesperson for the customs department claimed to be unaware of the existence of this sum.
On December 12, the semi-official ISNA news agency reported: “Hemmati pointed to the goods imported through customs and added: We have approved more than one billion dollars, but the goods have not been cleared. The statement came as a customs spokesman was unaware of the money’s existence and said that the customs had repeatedly asked Hemmati to provide documents on the transaction. However the central bank has never provided the necessary documents, and it is not clear on what these statements are based.”
Unreal trade statistics
When it comes to exports and imports, even the relevant entities do not know exactly what number is close to the real statistics. The head of the regime’s Central Bank announces that the country’s exports have reached $26.5 billion and imports $25 billion. Thus, the trade balance is positive $1.5 billion.
But on December 8, a report by the Moj news agency quoted the customs organization as declaring: “What customs, as the reference for revealing the country’s foreign trade statistics, announced was as follows: regarding the eight-month trade, the country has exported $21.448 billion and has imported $23.132 billion. Not only the country’s trade balance during this period is not positive, but is instead negative $1.648 billion.”
Liquidity growth 5 folds or 83 percent?!
In the same interview, Hemmati provided more fabricated statistics. Regarding the control of liquidity in Hassan Rouhani’s administration compared to the previous government, he claimed that liquidity has grown by only 83 percent in the last seven years.
This is while the liquidity has grown from 4,910 trillion rials to 29,600 trillion rials, and it is not clear with what formula the head of the central bank of the regime has reached this false number.
The people’ tables reveal the real statistics
All the institutions of the mullahs’ regime are constantly trying to cover up the reality of Iran’s crises through false statistics and concealment, while the real statistics are in front of the people’s eyes.
Millions of people have to borrow money to buy bread. Meat, poultry, fresh fruits and vegetables, and now bread is gradually disappearing from the people’s tables. The reality of Iran is the millions of labor children who instead of going to school are working in the streets to earn their keep and the dozens of schoolchildren who commit suicide under economic pressure.
Those who live in slums and tents, those who have to beg for a heel of bread and a few strings of meat feel the inflation rate with their flesh and bones and know very well that the regime’s statistics are fabricated and falsified. Of course, the regime’s officials know this too, and every day they are afraid of another outburst of public outrage that will turn into nationwide protests.